The current financial crisis is widely recognized as being tied to the bursting of the house price bubble and the debts accumulated in financing that bubble. Most commentary has therefore focused on market failure in the housing and credit markets. But what if the house price bubble developed because the economy needed a bubble to ensure continued growth? In that case the real cause of the crisis would be the economy's underlying macroeconomic structure. A focus on the housing and credit markets would miss that. Despite the relevance of macroeconomic factors for explaining the financial crisis, there is resistance to such an explanation. In part, this is because such factors operate indirectly and gradually, while microeconomic explanations that emphasize regulatory failure and flawed incentives within financial markets operate directly. Regulatory and incentive failures are specific, easy to understand, and offer a concrete "fixit" agenda that appeals to politicians who want to show they are doing something. They also tend to be associated with tales of villainy that attract media interest (such as Bernie Madoff's massive Ponzi scheme or the bonus scandals at AIG and Merrill Lynch). Finally, and perhaps most important, a microeconomic focus does not challenge the larger structure of economic arrangements, while a macroeconomic focus invites controversy by placing these matters squarely on the table. But, an economic crisis of the current magnitude does not occur without macroeconomic forces. That means the macroeconomic arrangements that have governed the U.S. economy for the past 25 years are critical for explaining the crisis. Two factors in particular have come into play. The first concerns the U.S. economic growth model and its impact on the pattern of income distribution and demand generation. The second concerns the U.S. model of global economic engagement and its impact on the structure of U.S. economic relations within the global economy. The macroeconomic forces unleashed by these twin factors have accumulated gradually and made for an increasingly fragile and unstable macroeconomic environment. The brewing instability over the past two decades has been visible in successive asset bubbles, rising indebtedness, rising trade deficits, and business cycles marked by initial weakness (so-called jobless recovery) followed by febrile booms. However, investors, policymakers, and economists chose to ignore these danger signs, resolutely refusing to examine the flawed macroeconomic arrangements that have led to the cliff's edge. It is time to take a step back and look at how we got ourselves in this precarious position. Then perhaps 2 we can figure out where to go next,download.
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